{
 "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T14:45:01+00:00",
 "latest_target_date": "2026-09-28",
 "reference_model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
 "definitions": {
  "error": "actual - q50 (EUR/MWh)",
  "pinball": "mean pinball loss over q10, q50, q90",
  "coverage_80": "share of actual prices inside [q10, q90]",
  "skill_mae": "1 - MAE(model) / MAE(reference) on the same scored quarter-hours",
  "price_spike": "quarter-hours whose actual price is at or above the 90th percentile of all actual prices in the window",
  "dm_test": "Diebold-Mariano (HLN-corrected, two-sided) on daily MAE, negative statistic = first model better"
 },
 "windows": {
  "7d": {
   "from": "2026-09-22",
   "to": "2026-09-28",
   "spike_threshold_eur_mwh": 256.03,
   "models": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 35.518,
      "rmse": 50.581,
      "pinball": 10.899,
      "coverage_80": 0.808,
      "skill_mae": 0.5686
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 39.007,
      "rmse": 56.237,
      "pinball": 11.913,
      "coverage_80": 0.773,
      "skill_mae": 0.486
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 26.796,
      "rmse": 32.374,
      "pinball": 8.362,
      "coverage_80": 0.896,
      "skill_mae": 0.7277
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 11.464,
      "rmse": 13.446,
      "pinball": 5.347,
      "coverage_80": 0.941,
      "skill_mae": -14.3087
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 86.699,
      "rmse": 118.285,
      "pinball": 25.638,
      "coverage_80": 0.794,
      "skill_mae": 0.2496
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 37.594,
      "rmse": 54.706,
      "pinball": 11.687,
      "coverage_80": 0.823,
      "skill_mae": 0.6255
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 39.744,
      "rmse": 60.375,
      "pinball": 12.521,
      "coverage_80": 0.842,
      "skill_mae": 0.6072
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 32.219,
      "rmse": 36.901,
      "pinball": 9.602,
      "coverage_80": 0.776,
      "skill_mae": 0.6726
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 10.396,
      "rmse": 13.894,
      "pinball": 5.508,
      "coverage_80": 0.941,
      "skill_mae": -12.8837
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 105.394,
      "rmse": 136.432,
      "pinball": 32.593,
      "coverage_80": 0.529,
      "skill_mae": 0.4133
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 36.294,
      "rmse": 55.691,
      "pinball": 11.878,
      "coverage_80": 0.699,
      "skill_mae": 0.5591
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 40.602,
      "rmse": 61.751,
      "pinball": 13.323,
      "coverage_80": 0.656,
      "skill_mae": 0.465
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 25.523,
      "rmse": 36.363,
      "pinball": 8.266,
      "coverage_80": 0.807,
      "skill_mae": 0.7406
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 51.703,
      "rmse": 53.06,
      "pinball": 13.706,
      "coverage_80": 0.647,
      "skill_mae": -68.0463
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 89.113,
      "rmse": 128.205,
      "pinball": 33.753,
      "coverage_80": 0.426,
      "skill_mae": 0.2287
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 53.317,
      "rmse": 73.991,
      "pinball": 16.422,
      "coverage_80": 0.671,
      "skill_mae": 0.4689
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 59.154,
      "rmse": 82.882,
      "pinball": 18.851,
      "coverage_80": 0.613,
      "skill_mae": 0.4153
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 38.724,
      "rmse": 44.586,
      "pinball": 10.352,
      "coverage_80": 0.818,
      "skill_mae": 0.6065
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 31.039,
      "rmse": 32.266,
      "pinball": 9.342,
      "coverage_80": 0.941,
      "skill_mae": -40.4497
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 136.264,
      "rmse": 172.899,
      "pinball": 49.731,
      "coverage_80": 0.397,
      "skill_mae": 0.2414
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 63.063,
      "rmse": 86.696,
      "pinball": 23.128,
      "coverage_80": 0.542,
      "skill_mae": 0.234
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 74.416,
      "rmse": 98.424,
      "pinball": 28.018,
      "coverage_80": 0.45,
      "skill_mae": 0.0194
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 34.682,
      "rmse": 45.7,
      "pinball": 10.902,
      "coverage_80": 0.771,
      "skill_mae": 0.6476
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 20.549,
      "rmse": 25.636,
      "pinball": 8.397,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": -26.4423
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 124.28,
      "rmse": 161.68,
      "pinball": 49.947,
      "coverage_80": 0.25,
      "skill_mae": -0.0757
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 79.152,
      "rmse": 111.357,
      "pinball": 29.017,
      "coverage_80": 0.549,
      "skill_mae": 0.2115
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 92.308,
      "rmse": 125.595,
      "pinball": 34.511,
      "coverage_80": 0.506,
      "skill_mae": 0.0876
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 46.262,
      "rmse": 62.975,
      "pinball": 15.284,
      "coverage_80": 0.656,
      "skill_mae": 0.5299
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 55.97,
      "rmse": 62.214,
      "pinball": 15.81,
      "coverage_80": 0.882,
      "skill_mae": -73.7439
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 181.755,
      "rmse": 231.646,
      "pinball": 75.121,
      "coverage_80": 0.324,
      "skill_mae": -0.0118
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 82.323,
      "rmse": 103.249,
      "pinball": 32.057,
      "coverage_80": 0.372,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 75.89,
      "rmse": 98.722,
      "pinball": 28.691,
      "coverage_80": 0.421,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 98.407,
      "rmse": 113.783,
      "pinball": 40.473,
      "coverage_80": 0.25,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 0.749,
      "rmse": 0.984,
      "pinball": 4.598,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 115.537,
      "rmse": 156.423,
      "pinball": 47.125,
      "coverage_80": 0.309,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 100.381,
      "rmse": 126.639,
      "pinball": 37.881,
      "coverage_80": 0.368,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 101.171,
      "rmse": 131.43,
      "pinball": 37.989,
      "coverage_80": 0.394,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 98.407,
      "rmse": 113.783,
      "pinball": 37.613,
      "coverage_80": 0.302,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 0.749,
      "rmse": 0.984,
      "pinball": 5.516,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 179.631,
      "rmse": 231.091,
      "pinball": 75.116,
      "coverage_80": 0.324,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 66.47,
      "rmse": 86.552,
      "pinball": 24.054,
      "coverage_80": 0.524,
      "skill_mae": 0.1926
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 53.695,
      "rmse": 72.864,
      "pinball": 18.227,
      "coverage_80": 0.619,
      "skill_mae": 0.2925
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 98.407,
      "rmse": 113.783,
      "pinball": 38.619,
      "coverage_80": 0.286,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 0.749,
      "rmse": 0.984,
      "pinball": 5.453,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 85.911,
      "rmse": 112.801,
      "pinball": 30.003,
      "coverage_80": 0.471,
      "skill_mae": 0.2564
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 66.47,
      "rmse": 86.552,
      "pinball": 24.208,
      "coverage_80": 0.521,
      "skill_mae": 0.3378
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 53.695,
      "rmse": 72.864,
      "pinball": 18.236,
      "coverage_80": 0.617,
      "skill_mae": 0.4693
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 98.407,
      "rmse": 113.783,
      "pinball": 39.136,
      "coverage_80": 0.281,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 17,
      "mae": 0.749,
      "rmse": 0.984,
      "pinball": 5.453,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
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      "mae": 85.911,
      "rmse": 112.801,
      "pinball": 29.809,
      "coverage_80": 0.471,
      "skill_mae": 0.5217
     }
    }
   ],
   "dm_tests": [
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    }
   ]
  },
  "30d": {
   "from": "2026-08-30",
   "to": "2026-09-28",
   "spike_threshold_eur_mwh": 229.53,
   "models": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 30,
     "days_forecast": 30,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 2880,
      "mae": 35.331,
      "rmse": 49.53,
      "pinball": 11.662,
      "coverage_80": 0.676,
      "skill_mae": 0.4243
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 2016,
      "mae": 35.144,
      "rmse": 52.018,
      "pinball": 11.313,
      "coverage_80": 0.723,
      "skill_mae": 0.3618
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 864,
      "mae": 35.769,
      "rmse": 43.172,
      "pinball": 12.476,
      "coverage_80": 0.566,
      "skill_mae": 0.5298
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 190,
      "mae": 28.91,
      "rmse": 35.92,
      "pinball": 9.903,
      "coverage_80": 0.637,
      "skill_mae": 0.0057
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 288,
      "mae": 68.233,
      "rmse": 104.052,
      "pinball": 22.288,
      "coverage_80": 0.778,
      "skill_mae": 0.3142
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 30,
     "days_forecast": 30,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 2880,
      "mae": 39.675,
      "rmse": 55.214,
      "pinball": 13.124,
      "coverage_80": 0.615,
      "skill_mae": 0.4371
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 2016,
      "mae": 38.682,
      "rmse": 56.966,
      "pinball": 12.557,
      "coverage_80": 0.669,
      "skill_mae": 0.4319
     },
     "weekend": {
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      "mae": 41.993,
      "rmse": 50.891,
      "pinball": 14.446,
      "coverage_80": 0.488,
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     },
     "negative_price": {
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      "mae": 29.365,
      "rmse": 36.882,
      "pinball": 11.322,
      "coverage_80": 0.5,
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     },
     "price_spike": {
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      "mae": 83.421,
      "rmse": 117.343,
      "pinball": 26.415,
      "coverage_80": 0.535,
      "skill_mae": 0.3262
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 30,
     "days_forecast": 30,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 2880,
      "mae": 36.262,
      "rmse": 53.14,
      "pinball": 12.291,
      "coverage_80": 0.579,
      "skill_mae": 0.4091
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 2016,
      "mae": 34.324,
      "rmse": 54.477,
      "pinball": 11.393,
      "coverage_80": 0.627,
      "skill_mae": 0.3767
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 864,
      "mae": 40.782,
      "rmse": 49.881,
      "pinball": 14.387,
      "coverage_80": 0.466,
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     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 190,
      "mae": 46.716,
      "rmse": 53.114,
      "pinball": 14.451,
      "coverage_80": 0.542,
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     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 288,
      "mae": 69.651,
      "rmse": 112.789,
      "pinball": 26.405,
      "coverage_80": 0.486,
      "skill_mae": 0.2999
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 30,
     "days_forecast": 30,
     "all": {
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      "skill_mae": -0.1577
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 24864,
      "mae": 38.842,
      "rmse": 60.565,
      "pinball": 13.529,
      "coverage_80": 0.778,
      "skill_mae": -0.2282
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 9984,
      "mae": 35.258,
      "rmse": 54.221,
      "pinball": 13.26,
      "coverage_80": 0.742,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 2052,
      "mae": 53.516,
      "rmse": 82.994,
      "pinball": 19.691,
      "coverage_80": 0.657,
      "skill_mae": -0.1489
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 3486,
      "mae": 64.803,
      "rmse": 97.251,
      "pinball": 23.242,
      "coverage_80": 0.635,
      "skill_mae": -0.1171
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 363,
     "days_forecast": 363,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 34848,
      "mae": 37.815,
      "rmse": 58.817,
      "pinball": 13.54,
      "coverage_80": 0.764,
      "skill_mae": 0.0033
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 24864,
      "mae": 38.842,
      "rmse": 60.565,
      "pinball": 13.598,
      "coverage_80": 0.774,
      "skill_mae": 0.0045
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 9984,
      "mae": 35.258,
      "rmse": 54.221,
      "pinball": 13.397,
      "coverage_80": 0.737,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 2052,
      "mae": 53.516,
      "rmse": 82.994,
      "pinball": 19.862,
      "coverage_80": 0.65,
      "skill_mae": -0.0021
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 3486,
      "mae": 64.803,
      "rmse": 97.251,
      "pinball": 23.397,
      "coverage_80": 0.627,
      "skill_mae": 0.0839
     }
    }
   ],
   "dm_tests": [
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -5.58,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -2.654
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -12.377,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -10.887
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -12.417,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -13.323
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -15.94,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -18.473
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -10.13,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -8.233
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -10.215,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -10.668
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -13.776,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -15.818
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -2.471,
     "p_value": 0.0139,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -2.435
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -5.359,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -7.585
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -4.907,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -5.15
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -9.155,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -7.44
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -11.467,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -16.759
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -10.009,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -16.147
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -11.244,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -16.022
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -8.014,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -9.318
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -6.135,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -8.707
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": -6.412,
     "p_value": 0.0,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -8.582
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": 0.507,
     "p_value": 0.6123,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": 0.611
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": 0.389,
     "p_value": 0.6976,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": 0.736
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 363,
     "statistic": 0.088,
     "p_value": 0.9296,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": 0.125
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "missed": [],
 "kind": "backtest",
 "warning": "Backtest on past data, not pre-registered. Model choices were made with knowledge of the past; treat these numbers as optimistic. The live book is the real test.",
 "period": {
  "first_target": "2025-10-01",
  "last_target": "2026-09-28"
 }
}