{
 "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-19T12:50:13+00:00",
 "latest_target_date": "2026-10-20",
 "reference_model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
 "definitions": {
  "error": "actual - q50 (EUR/MWh)",
  "pinball": "mean pinball loss over q10, q50, q90",
  "coverage_80": "share of actual prices inside [q10, q90]",
  "skill_mae": "1 - MAE(model) / MAE(reference) on the same scored quarter-hours",
  "price_spike": "quarter-hours whose actual price is at or above the 90th percentile of all actual prices in the window",
  "dm_test": "Diebold-Mariano (HLN-corrected, two-sided) on daily MAE, negative statistic = first model better"
 },
 "windows": {
  "7d": {
   "from": "2026-10-14",
   "to": "2026-10-20",
   "spike_threshold_eur_mwh": 250.08,
   "models": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 37.223,
      "rmse": 44.464,
      "pinball": 11.435,
      "coverage_80": 0.689,
      "skill_mae": 0.1577
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 41.062,
      "rmse": 48.111,
      "pinball": 12.788,
      "coverage_80": 0.613,
      "skill_mae": -0.5893
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 27.627,
      "rmse": 33.66,
      "pinball": 8.051,
      "coverage_80": 0.88,
      "skill_mae": 0.6933
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 63.855,
      "rmse": 69.405,
      "pinball": 20.905,
      "coverage_80": 0.353,
      "skill_mae": -0.9789
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 49.648,
      "rmse": 58.393,
      "pinball": 14.788,
      "coverage_80": 0.638,
      "skill_mae": -0.0541
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 58.188,
      "rmse": 65.747,
      "pinball": 17.484,
      "coverage_80": 0.548,
      "skill_mae": -0.9457
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 28.298,
      "rmse": 33.578,
      "pinball": 8.049,
      "coverage_80": 0.865,
      "skill_mae": 0.6859
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 80.72,
      "rmse": 84.219,
      "pinball": 26.264,
      "coverage_80": 0.162,
      "skill_mae": -2.1625
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 29.924,
      "rmse": 39.082,
      "pinball": 8.977,
      "coverage_80": 0.804,
      "skill_mae": 0.3229
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 27.995,
      "rmse": 37.533,
      "pinball": 8.798,
      "coverage_80": 0.783,
      "skill_mae": -0.0836
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 34.746,
      "rmse": 42.707,
      "pinball": 9.424,
      "coverage_80": 0.854,
      "skill_mae": 0.6143
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 42.879,
      "rmse": 54.989,
      "pinball": 12.986,
      "coverage_80": 0.779,
      "skill_mae": -0.3288
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 47.682,
      "rmse": 55.087,
      "pinball": 12.47,
      "coverage_80": 0.805,
      "skill_mae": -0.0123
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 46.126,
      "rmse": 52.553,
      "pinball": 12.155,
      "coverage_80": 0.831,
      "skill_mae": -0.5424
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 51.572,
      "rmse": 60.964,
      "pinball": 13.256,
      "coverage_80": 0.74,
      "skill_mae": 0.4275
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 59.641,
      "rmse": 63.071,
      "pinball": 14.823,
      "coverage_80": 0.882,
      "skill_mae": -1.3367
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 30.063,
      "rmse": 38.709,
      "pinball": 10.153,
      "coverage_80": 0.86,
      "skill_mae": 0.3197
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 29.156,
      "rmse": 38.443,
      "pinball": 10.128,
      "coverage_80": 0.863,
      "skill_mae": -0.1285
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 32.332,
      "rmse": 39.363,
      "pinball": 10.216,
      "coverage_80": 0.854,
      "skill_mae": 0.6411
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 45.577,
      "rmse": 60.495,
      "pinball": 15.513,
      "coverage_80": 0.735,
      "skill_mae": -0.4124
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 33.969,
      "rmse": 40.751,
      "pinball": 11.429,
      "coverage_80": 0.891,
      "skill_mae": 0.2788
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 34.595,
      "rmse": 41.019,
      "pinball": 11.582,
      "coverage_80": 0.887,
      "skill_mae": -0.1568
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 32.403,
      "rmse": 40.074,
      "pinball": 11.046,
      "coverage_80": 0.901,
      "skill_mae": 0.6403
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 39.798,
      "rmse": 48.89,
      "pinball": 13.394,
      "coverage_80": 0.941,
      "skill_mae": -0.5593
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 44.194,
      "rmse": 62.581,
      "pinball": 15.482,
      "coverage_80": 0.775,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 25.836,
      "rmse": 34.342,
      "pinball": 9.524,
      "coverage_80": 0.921,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 90.088,
      "rmse": 103.725,
      "pinball": 30.375,
      "coverage_80": 0.411,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 32.268,
      "rmse": 48.873,
      "pinball": 12.777,
      "coverage_80": 0.824,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 47.101,
      "rmse": 63.169,
      "pinball": 15.469,
      "coverage_80": 0.799,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 29.906,
      "rmse": 35.817,
      "pinball": 10.392,
      "coverage_80": 0.929,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 90.088,
      "rmse": 103.725,
      "pinball": 28.161,
      "coverage_80": 0.474,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 25.524,
      "rmse": 31.398,
      "pinball": 10.095,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 65.281,
      "rmse": 82.193,
      "pinball": 21.504,
      "coverage_80": 0.606,
      "skill_mae": -0.4771
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 55.358,
      "rmse": 71.794,
      "pinball": 18.625,
      "coverage_80": 0.642,
      "skill_mae": -1.1427
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 90.088,
      "rmse": 103.725,
      "pinball": 28.702,
      "coverage_80": 0.516,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 71.311,
      "rmse": 87.83,
      "pinball": 23.13,
      "coverage_80": 0.662,
      "skill_mae": -1.21
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_forecast": 7,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 672,
      "mae": 65.281,
      "rmse": 82.193,
      "pinball": 21.735,
      "coverage_80": 0.586,
      "skill_mae": -0.386
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 55.358,
      "rmse": 71.794,
      "pinball": 18.678,
      "coverage_80": 0.642,
      "skill_mae": -0.8511
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 192,
      "mae": 90.088,
      "rmse": 103.725,
      "pinball": 29.377,
      "coverage_80": 0.448,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "pinball": null,
      "coverage_80": null,
      "skill_mae": null
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 68,
      "mae": 71.311,
      "rmse": 87.83,
      "pinball": 23.113,
      "coverage_80": 0.662,
      "skill_mae": -1.7939
     }
    }
   ],
   "dm_tests": [
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 7,
     "note": "fewer than 10 paired days"
    }
   ]
  },
  "30d": {
   "from": "2026-10-01",
   "to": "2026-10-20",
   "spike_threshold_eur_mwh": 244.6,
   "models": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_forecast": 18,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 1728,
      "mae": 29.537,
      "rmse": 37.026,
      "pinball": 9.477,
      "coverage_80": 0.788,
      "skill_mae": 0.3622
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 1248,
      "mae": 30.816,
      "rmse": 38.374,
      "pinball": 9.803,
      "coverage_80": 0.772,
      "skill_mae": 0.1236
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 26.212,
      "rmse": 33.267,
      "pinball": 8.631,
      "coverage_80": 0.831,
      "skill_mae": 0.6519
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 1,
      "mae": 28.348,
      "rmse": 28.348,
      "pinball": 8.969,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.7106
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 177,
      "mae": 44.939,
      "rmse": 55.056,
      "pinball": 15.377,
      "coverage_80": 0.706,
      "skill_mae": -0.1219
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_forecast": 17,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 1632,
      "mae": 36.203,
      "rmse": 45.441,
      "pinball": 11.394,
      "coverage_80": 0.778,
      "skill_mae": 0.3538
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 1056,
      "mae": 42.084,
      "rmse": 51.323,
      "pinball": 13.121,
      "coverage_80": 0.726,
      "skill_mae": 0.1253
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 576,
      "mae": 25.422,
      "rmse": 31.959,
      "pinball": 8.229,
      "coverage_80": 0.873,
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     },
     "negative_price": {
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      "rmse": 31.621,
      "pinball": 9.869,
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     },
     "price_spike": {
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      "mae": 62.51,
      "rmse": 71.987,
      "pinball": 20.882,
      "coverage_80": 0.441,
      "skill_mae": -0.5113
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_forecast": 18,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 1728,
      "mae": 28.389,
      "rmse": 37.012,
      "pinball": 8.764,
      "coverage_80": 0.784,
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     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 1248,
      "mae": 28.022,
      "rmse": 37.318,
      "pinball": 8.909,
      "coverage_80": 0.761,
      "skill_mae": 0.203
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 480,
      "mae": 29.342,
      "rmse": 36.206,
      "pinball": 8.389,
      "coverage_80": 0.844,
      "skill_mae": 0.6103
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 1,
      "mae": 13.578,
      "rmse": 13.578,
      "pinball": 6.416,
      "coverage_80": 1.0,
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     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 177,
      "mae": 42.155,
      "rmse": 54.07,
      "pinball": 12.573,
      "coverage_80": 0.751,
      "skill_mae": -0.0524
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_forecast": 17,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 1632,
      "mae": 44.969,
      "rmse": 53.148,
      "pinball": 13.124,
      "coverage_80": 0.732,
      "skill_mae": 0.1973
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 1056,
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      "n_slots": 576,
      "mae": 70.524,
      "rmse": 87.41,
      "pinball": 23.761,
      "coverage_80": 0.576,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 1,
      "mae": 97.95,
      "rmse": 97.95,
      "pinball": 25.254,
      "coverage_80": 0.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 177,
      "mae": 60.006,
      "rmse": 75.517,
      "pinball": 19.012,
      "coverage_80": 0.734,
      "skill_mae": -0.4981
     }
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_forecast": 18,
     "all": {
      "n_slots": 1728,
      "mae": 61.731,
      "rmse": 78.508,
      "pinball": 20.986,
      "coverage_80": 0.608,
      "skill_mae": -0.1182
     },
     "weekday": {
      "n_slots": 1152,
      "mae": 57.334,
      "rmse": 73.655,
      "pinball": 19.401,
      "coverage_80": 0.636,
      "skill_mae": -0.2059
     },
     "weekend": {
      "n_slots": 576,
      "mae": 70.524,
      "rmse": 87.41,
      "pinball": 24.156,
      "coverage_80": 0.55,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "negative_price": {
      "n_slots": 1,
      "mae": 97.95,
      "rmse": 97.95,
      "pinball": 27.232,
      "coverage_80": 0.0,
      "skill_mae": 0.0
     },
     "price_spike": {
      "n_slots": 156,
      "mae": 66.117,
      "rmse": 80.186,
      "pinball": 20.533,
      "coverage_80": 0.699,
      "skill_mae": -0.6181
     }
    }
   ],
   "dm_tests": [
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": 0.292,
     "p_value": 0.7738,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": 1.148
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -1.425,
     "p_value": 0.1722,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -6.767
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -2.195,
     "p_value": 0.0423,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -16.773
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -4.097,
     "p_value": 0.0008,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -31.221
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -1.579,
     "p_value": 0.1328,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -7.915
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -2.367,
     "p_value": 0.0301,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -17.921
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -3.702,
     "p_value": 0.0018,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -32.369
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -1.476,
     "p_value": 0.1581,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -10.006
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -2.85,
     "p_value": 0.0111,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -24.454
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "n_days": 19,
     "statistic": -2.149,
     "p_value": 0.0455,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -13.688
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.391,
     "p_value": 0.1833,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -8.766
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -0.968,
     "p_value": 0.3472,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -11.619
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.583,
     "p_value": 0.1329,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -19.82
    },
    {
     "model_a": "gbm.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -2.25,
     "p_value": 0.0389,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -26.729
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -0.31,
     "p_value": 0.7603,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -2.852
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.191,
     "p_value": 0.251,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -11.054
    },
    {
     "model_a": "lear.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.912,
     "p_value": 0.074,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -17.963
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.236,
     "p_value": 0.2344,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -8.201
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 17,
     "statistic": -1.334,
     "p_value": 0.2009,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -15.111
    },
    {
     "model_a": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "model_b": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "n_days": 18,
     "statistic": -1.078,
     "p_value": 0.2959,
     "mean_daily_mae_diff": -6.526
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "missed": [
  {
   "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-01",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-01",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-01",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "lear.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-01",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "gbm.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-01",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-02",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-02",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-02",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "lear.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-02",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "gbm.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-02",
   "issue_date": "2026-09-30",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-11",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "lear.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-11",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "gbm.v1",
   "horizon_days": 1,
   "target_date": "2026-10-11",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-12",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "lear.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-12",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  },
  {
   "model": "gbm.v1",
   "horizon_days": 2,
   "target_date": "2026-10-12",
   "issue_date": "2026-10-10",
   "status": "missed"
  }
 ],
 "cheapest_windows": {
  "definitions": {
   "hit_rate": "share of days on which the recommended 3-hour window was the cheapest",
   "near_rate": "share of days on which it was at most 5 EUR/MWh (0.5 ct/kWh) more expensive than the cheapest window",
   "mean_p_cheapest / mean_p_near": "average stated probability; compare with the realised rate (calibration)",
   "brier_*": "mean squared difference between stated probability and outcome (0/1)",
   "regret_eur_mwh": "actual mean price in the recommended window minus the cheapest window",
   "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": "actual day mean minus actual mean price in the recommended window"
  },
  "windows": {
   "7d": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.143,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.274,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1514,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.798,
     "brier_near": 0.2438,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 5.2,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 49.27
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.143,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.181,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1321,
     "near_rate": 0.857,
     "mean_p_near": 0.609,
     "brier_near": 0.1416,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 4.31,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 50.17
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.286,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.198,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1996,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.679,
     "brier_near": 0.1845,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 6.34,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 48.14
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.286,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.172,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.2293,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.71,
     "brier_near": 0.2257,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 6.31,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 48.16
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.143,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.184,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1074,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.513,
     "brier_near": 0.2342,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 6.45,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 48.03
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.286,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.205,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.2465,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.498,
     "brier_near": 0.2158,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 6.36,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 48.11
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.143,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.217,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1184,
     "near_rate": 0.857,
     "mean_p_near": 0.513,
     "brier_near": 0.3327,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 5.04,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 49.43
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.143,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.189,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1198,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.465,
     "brier_near": 0.3247,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 7.95,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 46.52
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.0,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.157,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0336,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.448,
     "brier_near": 0.3135,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 7.0,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 47.48
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 7,
     "days_scored": 7,
     "hit_rate": 0.0,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.157,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0338,
     "near_rate": 0.714,
     "mean_p_near": 0.451,
     "brier_near": 0.3069,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 7.0,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 47.48
    }
   ],
   "30d": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.278,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.29,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.2058,
     "near_rate": 0.833,
     "mean_p_near": 0.84,
     "brier_near": 0.1454,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 2.75,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 61.56
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 17,
     "hit_rate": 0.059,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.218,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0912,
     "near_rate": 0.882,
     "mean_p_near": 0.694,
     "brier_near": 0.1514,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 2.7,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 64.93
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.222,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.227,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.166,
     "near_rate": 0.889,
     "mean_p_near": 0.731,
     "brier_near": 0.117,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 3.16,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 61.15
    },
    {
     "model": "lear.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 17,
     "hit_rate": 0.235,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.214,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1788,
     "near_rate": 0.824,
     "mean_p_near": 0.775,
     "brier_near": 0.1505,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 3.45,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 64.18
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.056,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.207,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.08,
     "near_rate": 0.833,
     "mean_p_near": 0.572,
     "brier_near": 0.1917,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 4.36,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 59.95
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_last_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 17,
     "hit_rate": 0.118,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.2,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1358,
     "near_rate": 0.824,
     "mean_p_near": 0.548,
     "brier_near": 0.2104,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 4.13,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 63.5
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 19,
     "hit_rate": 0.053,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.225,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0863,
     "near_rate": 0.895,
     "mean_p_near": 0.597,
     "brier_near": 0.2144,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 3.9,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 62.37
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_similar_day.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.056,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.26,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.1166,
     "near_rate": 0.833,
     "mean_p_near": 0.649,
     "brier_near": 0.1808,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 4.64,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 62.15
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 19,
     "hit_rate": 0.0,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.256,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0966,
     "near_rate": 0.842,
     "mean_p_near": 0.592,
     "brier_near": 0.2021,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 3.77,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 62.51
    },
    {
     "model": "naive_weekly.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.0,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.234,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0784,
     "near_rate": 0.833,
     "mean_p_near": 0.574,
     "brier_near": 0.2102,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 3.94,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 62.85
    }
   ],
   "90d": [
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 1,
     "days_due": 20,
     "days_scored": 18,
     "hit_rate": 0.278,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.29,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.2058,
     "near_rate": 0.833,
     "mean_p_near": 0.84,
     "brier_near": 0.1454,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 2.75,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 61.56
    },
    {
     "model": "gbm.v1",
     "horizon_days": 2,
     "days_due": 19,
     "days_scored": 17,
     "hit_rate": 0.059,
     "mean_p_cheapest": 0.218,
     "brier_cheapest": 0.0912,
     "near_rate": 0.882,
     "mean_p_near": 0.694,
     "brier_near": 0.1514,
     "mean_regret_eur_mwh": 2.7,
     "saving_vs_day_mean_eur_mwh": 64.93
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  }
 }
}