Monday, 19 October 2026

Day-ahead price Germany-Luxembourg per quarter-hour. Issued on Sunday, 18 October 2026, 08:55, before the auction closes at 12:00.

Monday, 19 October 2026

80 % band (P10–P90) Median Actual price Cheapest 3 hours €/MWh

Cheapest 3 hours: 02:15–05:15; 8 % probability that this is the cheapest window
Day mean (median): 199 €/MWh; 19.9 ct/kWh
Min / Max: 149 / 339; 03:45 / 08:00
Error of the day (MAE): 21.4 €/MWh
Model: lear.v1; Shown is the model with the lowest D+1 error over the last 30 days.

Values as a table

Time	P10	Median	P90
00:00	152.4	172.5	188.6
00:15	146.2	166.4	182.5
00:30	140.8	161.0	177.1
00:45	136.5	156.7	172.8
01:00	140.9	162.7	181.4
01:15	136.3	158.1	176.8
01:30	135.5	157.3	176.0
01:45	133.9	155.7	174.4
02:00	134.2	155.3	171.3
02:15	131.5	152.7	168.6
02:30	131.4	152.5	168.5
02:45	130.7	151.8	167.8
03:00	128.5	149.8	169.7
03:15	128.3	149.5	169.4
03:30	127.9	149.1	169.0
03:45	127.5	148.8	168.7
04:00	125.3	149.8	167.9
04:15	125.5	150.0	168.1
04:30	126.1	150.6	168.7
04:45	127.3	151.7	169.9
05:00	127.9	155.2	180.6
05:15	130.6	158.0	183.4
05:30	136.7	164.1	189.5
05:45	147.3	174.7	200.1
06:00	146.0	178.9	218.6
06:15	162.2	195.0	234.8
06:30	175.7	208.5	248.3
06:45	183.9	216.7	256.5
07:00	222.3	258.4	307.1
07:15	230.0	266.1	314.8
07:30	231.6	267.7	316.4
07:45	226.8	262.8	311.6
08:00	298.9	338.8	388.9
08:15	284.4	324.4	374.4
08:30	271.7	311.6	361.7
08:45	251.0	291.0	341.0
09:00	284.7	324.1	379.2
09:15	264.7	304.1	359.2
09:30	247.1	286.5	341.6
09:45	227.4	266.7	321.9
10:00	227.4	270.8	331.5
10:15	211.8	255.1	315.9
10:30	199.6	243.0	303.7
10:45	187.2	230.6	291.3
11:00	145.6	202.8	268.5
11:15	133.0	190.2	255.9
11:30	123.3	180.5	246.2
11:45	113.9	171.1	236.8
12:00	139.9	197.7	266.4
12:15	132.0	189.8	258.5
12:30	128.6	186.4	255.1
12:45	123.4	181.2	249.9
13:00	118.8	176.3	248.5
13:15	115.0	172.5	244.7
13:30	112.8	170.3	242.5
13:45	111.1	168.6	240.8
14:00	108.0	162.5	234.1
14:15	112.4	166.9	238.5
14:30	119.7	174.2	245.8
14:45	128.2	182.8	254.3
15:00	90.7	150.2	217.0
15:15	101.2	160.7	227.6
15:30	113.7	173.2	240.0
15:45	123.4	182.9	249.7
16:00	88.2	152.8	223.3
16:15	106.0	170.6	241.2
16:30	124.9	189.5	260.1
16:45	149.9	214.5	285.1
17:00	128.2	182.0	264.7
17:15	158.1	211.8	294.5
17:30	179.7	233.4	316.1
17:45	199.6	253.4	336.1
18:00	175.3	215.0	307.7
18:15	190.7	230.4	323.1
18:30	208.1	247.8	340.5
18:45	229.3	269.0	361.7
19:00	198.6	240.6	344.4
19:15	202.8	244.8	348.6
19:30	205.0	247.0	350.8
19:45	195.9	237.9	341.7
20:00	192.0	229.6	324.6
20:15	177.1	214.7	309.7
20:30	166.3	203.9	298.9
20:45	153.8	191.4	286.4
21:00	175.3	206.1	274.3
21:15	163.5	194.3	262.4
21:30	155.2	186.0	254.2
21:45	141.3	172.1	240.3
22:00	159.6	188.3	245.5
22:15	151.9	180.6	237.7
22:30	149.6	178.3	235.4
22:45	140.3	169.0	226.1
23:00	139.6	171.8	223.8
23:15	131.7	163.8	215.9
23:30	127.6	159.7	211.8
23:45	118.4	150.6	202.6

Tuesday, 20 October 2026

80 % band (P10–P90) Median Actual price Cheapest 3 hours €/MWh

Cheapest 3 hours: 02:15–05:15; 13 % probability that this is the cheapest window
Day mean (median): 183 €/MWh; 18.3 ct/kWh
Min / Max: 133 / 322; 03:45 / 09:00
Model: lear.v1; Shown is the model with the lowest D+1 error over the last 30 days.

Values as a table

Time	P10	Median	P90
00:00	122.5	159.8	214.4
00:15	116.3	153.7	208.3
00:30	110.9	148.2	202.8
00:45	106.6	144.0	198.6
01:00	104.6	145.9	200.2
01:15	100.1	141.3	195.6
01:30	99.3	140.5	194.9
01:45	97.7	138.9	193.2
02:00	98.7	138.5	191.1
02:15	96.1	135.9	188.4
02:30	95.9	135.7	188.3
02:45	95.2	135.0	187.6
03:00	93.4	134.2	186.9
03:15	93.2	134.0	186.7
03:30	92.8	133.6	186.3
03:45	92.4	133.2	185.9
04:00	90.6	134.5	186.5
04:15	90.8	134.7	186.7
04:30	91.4	135.3	187.3
04:45	92.6	136.5	188.4
05:00	93.6	136.8	193.0
05:15	96.4	139.5	195.7
05:30	102.5	145.6	201.8
05:45	113.1	156.2	212.4
06:00	113.5	155.8	227.7
06:15	129.6	172.0	243.9
06:30	143.1	185.5	257.3
06:45	151.3	193.7	265.5
07:00	174.6	212.9	288.3
07:15	182.3	220.7	296.0
07:30	183.9	222.2	297.6
07:45	179.1	217.4	292.8
08:00	234.0	282.7	365.1
08:15	219.5	268.2	350.7
08:30	206.7	255.5	337.9
08:45	186.1	234.8	317.2
09:00	260.9	321.8	405.0
09:15	240.9	301.8	385.0
09:30	223.3	284.2	367.4
09:45	203.5	264.4	347.6
10:00	190.9	248.0	330.7
10:15	175.3	232.4	315.1
10:30	163.1	220.2	302.9
10:45	150.7	207.8	290.5
11:00	113.2	170.5	258.3
11:15	100.5	157.9	245.6
11:30	90.8	148.2	235.9
11:45	81.4	138.8	226.5
12:00	107.3	156.2	243.3
12:15	99.5	148.4	235.5
12:30	96.0	144.9	232.0
12:45	90.8	139.7	226.8
13:00	112.2	164.8	253.0
13:15	108.4	161.0	249.2
13:30	106.2	158.8	247.0
13:45	104.5	157.1	245.3
14:00	103.6	150.5	237.0
14:15	108.0	154.9	241.4
14:30	115.3	162.2	248.7
14:45	123.8	170.8	257.2
15:00	78.8	134.2	216.2
15:15	89.3	144.8	226.8
15:30	101.8	157.2	239.2
15:45	111.5	166.9	248.9
16:00	73.2	144.3	227.0
16:15	91.1	162.2	244.8
16:30	110.0	181.1	263.7
16:45	134.9	206.0	288.7
17:00	150.5	215.8	310.1
17:15	180.3	245.6	339.9
17:30	201.9	267.2	361.5
17:45	221.9	287.2	381.5
18:00	182.0	218.9	312.0
18:15	197.4	234.2	327.3
18:30	214.8	251.7	344.8
18:45	236.0	272.8	366.0
19:00	188.4	229.8	329.7
19:15	192.7	234.0	333.9
19:30	194.9	236.3	336.2
19:45	185.8	227.1	327.0
20:00	174.0	214.1	294.7
20:15	159.1	199.2	279.9
20:30	148.3	188.3	269.0
20:45	135.8	175.9	256.5
21:00	156.1	194.5	261.0
21:15	144.3	182.7	249.2
21:30	136.0	174.4	241.0
21:45	122.1	160.5	227.1
22:00	142.8	177.7	236.7
22:15	135.1	170.0	229.0
22:30	132.7	167.7	226.7
22:45	123.5	158.4	217.4
23:00	133.2	162.7	222.0
23:15	125.3	154.7	214.1
23:30	121.2	150.6	210.0
23:45	112.0	141.5	200.8

The book

Each line is a forecast saved as an immutable file before the auction. Missed days stay in the book. Track record

The book: MAE D+1, €/MWh
#	Delivery day	Issued	naive_last_day.v1	naive_weekly.v1	naive_similar_day.v1	lear.v1	gbm.v1
19	Mo 19 Oct	08:55	35.2	18.6	18.6	21.4	46.5
18	Su 18 Oct	08:55	21.7	63.0	63.0	38.6	26.7
17	Sa 17 Oct	08:55	43.0	117.2	117.2	30.9	28.6
16	Fr 16 Oct	08:55	23.8	132.1	23.8	37.7	62.5
15	Th 15 Oct	08:55	23.6	49.5	23.6	10.6	39.6
14	We 14 Oct	08:55	42.7	39.1	42.7	55.3	41.6
13	Tu 13 Oct	08:55	37.3	45.7	37.3	20.2	27.1
12	Mo 12 Oct	08:55	76.9	41.3	41.3	18.3	32.2
11	Su 11 Oct	08:55	missed	46.7	46.7	missed	missed
10	Sa 10 Oct	08:55	54.4	117.9	117.9	17.0	43.5
9	Fr 9 Oct	08:55	60.8	121.9	60.8	36.6	34.5
8	Th 8 Oct	08:55	52.7	56.1	52.7	19.2	13.9
7	We 7 Oct	08:55	36.1	59.8	36.1	21.7	21.8
6	Tu 6 Oct	08:55	47.8	45.0	47.8	50.7	21.9

MAE D+1, €/MWh.

Check, don't trust

Forecast files live in the git repository, each with issue time, data cutoff, code version and checksum. An automatic check fails as soon as an existing file is changed or deleted. Browse the files