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Where the model fails

The days with the largest error, with hints generated automatically from the prices themselves. They are clues, not a root-cause analysis: the model does not see wind, sun, gas or plant outages.

Live: lear.v1

Shown is the model with the lowest D+1 error over the last 30 days.

Wednesday, 14 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 55 EUR/MWh

Wednesday, 14 October 2026−100010020030000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • No striking pattern in the prices themselves. Most likely wind or sun differed from the previous days.
  • The forecast was 55 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:45: forecast 177, actual 299 EUR/MWh.

Tuesday, 6 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 51 EUR/MWh

Tuesday, 6 October 2026−200020040000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 202 EUR/MWh instead of 157 on the last known day.
  • The forecast was 50 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:00: forecast 240, actual 405 EUR/MWh.

Sunday, 18 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 39 EUR/MWh

Sunday, 18 October 2026010020030000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • No striking pattern in the prices themselves. Most likely wind or sun differed from the previous days.
  • The forecast was 38 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 12:30: forecast 95, actual 188 EUR/MWh.

Friday, 16 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 38 EUR/MWh

Friday, 16 October 2026010020030000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • No striking pattern in the prices themselves. Most likely wind or sun differed from the previous days.
  • The forecast was 38 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 11:00: forecast 147, actual 219 EUR/MWh.

Saturday, 3 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 37 EUR/MWh

Saturday, 3 October 2026−200020000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 169 EUR/MWh instead of 201 on the last known day.
  • Public holiday: German Unity Day.
  • The forecast was 37 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 10:45: forecast 61, actual 140 EUR/MWh.

Friday, 9 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 37 EUR/MWh

Friday, 9 October 2026−100010020000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 79 EUR/MWh instead of 139 on the last known day.
  • The forecast was 36 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 20:00: forecast 183, actual 102 EUR/MWh.

Saturday, 17 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 31 EUR/MWh

Saturday, 17 October 2026−100010020030000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 168 EUR/MWh instead of 211 on the last known day.
  • The forecast was 25 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 18:00: forecast 139, actual 210 EUR/MWh.

Monday, 5 October 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 30 EUR/MWh

Monday, 5 October 2026−200020000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • No striking pattern in the prices themselves. Most likely wind or sun differed from the previous days.
  • The forecast was 30 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 13:15: forecast 101, actual 6 EUR/MWh.

From the backtest

Tuesday, 25 November 2025

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 93 EUR/MWh

Tuesday, 25 November 2025020040000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 221 EUR/MWh instead of 132 on the last known day.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 312 EUR/MWh (usually about 116).
  • The forecast was 92 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 07:45: forecast 137, actual 392 EUR/MWh.

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 83 EUR/MWh

Wednesday, 24 June 2026−250025050075000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 208 EUR/MWh instead of 175 on the last known day.
  • Price spike up to 747 EUR/MWh at 20:45, higher than on 95 % of the days before.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 683 EUR/MWh (usually about 167).
  • The forecast was 78 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 20:45: forecast 233, actual 747 EUR/MWh.

Friday, 1 May 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 74 EUR/MWh

Friday, 1 May 2026−750−500−250025000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean −2 EUR/MWh instead of 72 on the last known day.
  • 32 quarter-hours with negative prices, minimum −500 EUR/MWh.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 733 EUR/MWh (usually about 159).
  • Public holiday: Labor Day.
  • The forecast was 67 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 12:45: forecast −43, actual −493 EUR/MWh.

Friday, 10 April 2026

lear.v1, D+1: MAE 73 EUR/MWh

Friday, 10 April 2026−200020000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 120 EUR/MWh instead of 82 on the last known day.
  • Price spike up to 315 EUR/MWh at 19:45, higher than on 95 % of the days before.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 237 EUR/MWh (usually about 121).
  • The forecast was 73 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:45: forecast 121, actual 315 EUR/MWh.

Tuesday, 25 November 2025

gbm.v1, D+1: MAE 79 EUR/MWh

Tuesday, 25 November 2025010020030040000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 221 EUR/MWh instead of 132 on the last known day.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 312 EUR/MWh (usually about 116).
  • The forecast was 71 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 07:45: forecast 150, actual 392 EUR/MWh.

Friday, 1 May 2026

gbm.v1, D+1: MAE 77 EUR/MWh

Friday, 1 May 2026−750−500−250025000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean −2 EUR/MWh instead of 72 on the last known day.
  • 32 quarter-hours with negative prices, minimum −500 EUR/MWh.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 733 EUR/MWh (usually about 159).
  • Public holiday: Labor Day.
  • The forecast was 60 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 13:00: forecast −29, actual −496 EUR/MWh.

Tuesday, 22 September 2026

gbm.v1, D+1: MAE 74 EUR/MWh

Tuesday, 22 September 2026−200020040060000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 226 EUR/MWh instead of 97 on the last known day.
  • Price spike up to 648 EUR/MWh at 19:15, higher than on 95 % of the days before.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 535 EUR/MWh (usually about 195).
  • The forecast was 74 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:15: forecast 254, actual 648 EUR/MWh.

Monday, 14 September 2026

gbm.v1, D+1: MAE 71 EUR/MWh

Monday, 14 September 2026020040060000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 257 EUR/MWh instead of 166 on the last known day.
  • Price spike up to 740 EUR/MWh at 19:45, higher than on 95 % of the days before.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 588 EUR/MWh (usually about 194).
  • The forecast was 71 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:45: forecast 287, actual 740 EUR/MWh.

Monday, 21 September 2026

naive_similar_day.v1, D+1: MAE 160 EUR/MWh

Monday, 21 September 2026−250025050075000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 97 EUR/MWh instead of 22 on the last known day.
  • The forecast was 160 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 19:15: forecast 700, actual 224 EUR/MWh.

Sunday, 20 September 2026

naive_similar_day.v1, D+1: MAE 144 EUR/MWh

Sunday, 20 September 2026−100010020030000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • 27 quarter-hours with negative prices, minimum −2 EUR/MWh.
  • The forecast was 144 EUR/MWh too high on average.
  • Largest error at 17:30: forecast 197, actual 0 EUR/MWh.

Tuesday, 22 September 2026

naive_similar_day.v1, D+1: MAE 130 EUR/MWh

Tuesday, 22 September 2026−250025050000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 226 EUR/MWh instead of 97 on the last known day.
  • Price spike up to 648 EUR/MWh at 19:15, higher than on 95 % of the days before.
  • Unusually wide range within the day: 535 EUR/MWh (usually about 195).
  • The forecast was 130 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 19:15: forecast 224, actual 648 EUR/MWh.

Monday, 13 April 2026

naive_similar_day.v1, D+1: MAE 124 EUR/MWh

Monday, 13 April 2026−400−200020000:0006:0012:0018:00
  • The price level jumped: day mean 127 EUR/MWh instead of 80 on the last known day.
  • The forecast was 124 EUR/MWh too low on average.
  • Largest error at 13:45: forecast −147, actual 95 EUR/MWh.