For dynamic electricity tariffs: when is it worth running the washing machine, heat pump or electric car? These are forecasts with uncertainty, not a guarantee.
12:30–15:30
In 13 of 100 scenarios this window is the cheapest. In 42 of 100 it costs at most 0.5 ct/kWh more than the cheapest.
Expected exchange price in the window 14.9 ct/kWh, day mean 19.3 ct/kWh.
02:00–05:00
In 25 of 100 scenarios this window is the cheapest. In 60 of 100 it costs at most 0.5 ct/kWh more than the cheapest.
Expected exchange price in the window 13.8 ct/kWh, day mean 18.8 ct/kWh.
Model: lear.v1. Shown is the model with the lowest D+1 error over the last 30 days.
This is the exchange price without taxes, levies and grid fees. With dynamic tariffs these are added per kWh, but the order of the hours stays the same. Scenarios come from the real forecast errors of the last 60 to 90 days. Probabilities are saved before the auction and checked later; the track record is below.
| Model | D+ | n | Hit rate | stated | within 0.5 ct | stated | Extra cost vs. best window | Saving vs. day mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm.v1 | 1 | 18 | 28 % | 29 % | 83 % | 84 % | 0.28 ct | 6.16 ct |
| gbm.v1 | 2 | 17 | 6 % | 22 % | 88 % | 69 % | 0.27 ct | 6.49 ct |
| lear.v1 | 1 | 18 | 22 % | 23 % | 89 % | 73 % | 0.32 ct | 6.12 ct |
| lear.v1 | 2 | 17 | 24 % | 21 % | 82 % | 78 % | 0.35 ct | 6.42 ct |
| naive_last_day.v1 | 1 | 18 | 6 % | 21 % | 83 % | 57 % | 0.44 ct | 6.00 ct |
| naive_last_day.v1 | 2 | 17 | 12 % | 20 % | 82 % | 55 % | 0.41 ct | 6.35 ct |
| naive_similar_day.v1 | 1 | 19 | 5 % | 22 % | 90 % | 60 % | 0.39 ct | 6.24 ct |
| naive_similar_day.v1 | 2 | 18 | 6 % | 26 % | 83 % | 65 % | 0.46 ct | 6.21 ct |
| naive_weekly.v1 | 1 | 19 | 0 % | 26 % | 84 % | 59 % | 0.38 ct | 6.25 ct |
| naive_weekly.v1 | 2 | 18 | 0 % | 23 % | 83 % | 57 % | 0.39 ct | 6.29 ct |